A top-down view showing an area of al-Ahli hospital where hundreds of Palestinians were killed in a blast that Israeli and Palestinian officials blamed on each other, and where Palestinians who fled their homes were sheltering amid the ongoing conflict with Israel, in Gaza City, October 18, 2023. © Mohammed Al-Masri, Reuters
A misfired rocket launched by a Palestinian faction in Gaza was likely responsible for the al-Ahli hospital blast, according to a European military source interviewed by FRANCE 24. The death toll of the explosion, which Hamas attributed to an Israeli air strike, is likely to be lower than announced, the same source said.
This handout satellite picture
courtesy of Maxar Technologies taken on October 19, 2023, shows the aftermath
of a strike that occurred on October 17, 2023 on Al-Ahli hospital and the
surrounding area in Gaza City. © Satellite image 2023 Maxar technology / AFP
Having examined images showing the damage at the point of impact at al-Ahli
hospital, a European military source interviewed by FRANCE 24 contested Hamas's
version of events, taking into account the weapons likely to have been
used and the context in which the strike took place.
Satellite images of the impact appear to show little structural damage to
the hospital buildings and a relatively small blast zone from the explosion.
The point of impact appears to be a 30-cm-deep hole measuring roughly one-metre-by-75
cm in diameter. This damage pattern is consistent with a rocket carrying around
5 kg of explosives, and no more than 10kg, according to the source. A metal
object visible in the bottom of the hole seems to have an oblique inclination,
which the source interprets as the result of a south-to-north trajectory.
A picture of the impact near Gaza's al-Ahli hospital taken on October 18, 2023. © Mohammed Al-Masri, Reuters
Photos taken the day after the strike show several surrounding buildings
and vehicles still relatively intact, with some windows shattered either by the
blast or the ensuing fire. There appear to be no rocket or missile remains
around the site.
- An air-to-ground strike by an Israeli fighter jet
The
European source asserted that we can rule out this hypothesis, as the usual
250-kg-bomb used by the Israeli military would have left a huge crater, not a
30-cm-deep hole. A fighter jet strike, or even a smaller drone strike, seems
unlikely given the absence of debris, the source said. The source also referred
to a confidential image allegedly showing the extremity of a rocket in the
hole.
- An intercepted Palestinian rocket
The same
source explained that the Israeli system for intercepting rockets usually
destroys incoming projectiles in the middle of their trajectory rather than
during their firing phase. In addition, the source said, debris from an
intercepted rocket could not have caused the amount of damage observed on the
ground. The source also discarded the possibility of an Israeli interceptor
missile falling on al-Ahli hospital, arguing that Israel’s interception
devices are programmed to explode at a certain altitude to prevent debris from
hitting Israeli civilians below.
Israel's Iron Dome defence system AFP
- Mishandling of explosives
There is no surveillance or satellite imagery to suggest that a car bomb
exploded or that explosives were handled at the site, the European military
source said.
- A misfired rocket from a
Palestinian faction
The European military source assessed that the explosion was probably
caused by a rocket fired from Gaza. The dimensions of the hole and the damage
caused by the explosion are consistent with the smaller model of rockets used
by Palestinian factions, the source said – approximately 107 mm, with an
explosive head weighing around 5 kg.
An analysis of the context also supports this hypothesis, the source said,
saying that there was a 10 percent misfiring rate for Palestinian rockets.
According to confidential information the source reportedly exchanged with
other intelligence services, Hamas and other Palestinian factions had launched
about 6,500 rockets by October 17, compared with between 5,000 and 6,000
Israeli strikes.
The European military source also questioned the death toll announced by
the Gazan Ministry of Health, saying that it was highly unlikely that 471
people died in this explosion. Besides the size of the hole and limited
structural damage, the usual dead-to-injured ration suggests that there should
be four people wounded for each person killed, the source said.
The fact that the blast took place outside, coupled with the small amount
of human remains such as blood, hair and clothing visible at the site as well
as the speed with which the death toll was announced all point to an inflated
death toll, according to the source.
France24
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