Dec 27, 2023. Posted by Balkan Periscope - Hellas
Washington.
Escalating
attacks on US troops and commercial shipping and incidents often involving Iran
and its proxies are causing new concerns that Israel’s war in Gaza could widen
into a regional conflagration with grave political and economic consequences.
With American service personnel increasingly in a dangerous firing line and with US and allied naval assets on high alert after multiple drone attacks, the deteriorating situation is leading to a tense holiday period for the White House.
The rising
possibility of US combat deaths and the worsening security situation from the
Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and stretching through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and
Israel represents an unwelcome new foreign crisis as President Joe Biden’s
reelection year dawns. And it is becoming a petri dish for a new geopolitical
trend — endless tests of America’s will and credibility by its adversaries and
their proxies. Warnings by Israel that its war against Hamas in Gaza will last
for months, despite US pressure for a ratcheting down of the intensity of the
conflict, threaten to heighten the chances war could spin out of control and
drag the US further in.
Initial
anxiety that a regional war could erupt after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel
killed 1,200 and Israel launched its onslaught on Gaza didn’t immediately
materialize even amid limited exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah forces in
Lebanon on one of the most hair trigger fronts in the area.
But the
pace of attacks and escalations in recent days appears to be gaining its own
deadly momentum, fueling fears of further rising tensions.
— Biden
ordered airstrikes on Monday against facilities used by pro-Iranian Kataib
Hezbollah militia fighters in Iraq that the US accused of using a drone to
attack Erbil Air Base, critically injuring one American service member. It was
the latest attack by Iranian proxy groups against US forces in Syria or Iraq
that are engaged in anti-terror operations.
— US forces
intercepted a barrage of drones and missiles on Tuesday over the Red Sea fired
by Houthi rebels — an Iranian-backed group in Yemen – US Central Command said.
The US previously said Iranian intelligence has been active in helping plot
attacks on commercial shipping, which have prompted some freight lines to
reroute their vessels around Africa instead of the more economical passage
through the Suez Canal, sparking fears for the global supply chain. Iran has
repeatedly denied involvement.
— The
geographic footprint of instability is now stretching toward India after a
chemical tanker operating in the Indian Ocean was struck by an Iranian attack
drone Saturday, 200 nautical miles from the Indian coast, the Pentagon said.
Iran repeatedly denied involvement.
— Iran and
several of its proxies accused Israel of assassinating a senior Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps commander in an airstrike in a suburb of the Syrian
capital Damascus. Israel refused to comment on the claims, but the IRGC
threatened to avenge the killing of Seyyed Razi Mousavi, saying “the Israeli
regime would undoubtedly pay the price for this crime.”
The spate
of fresh incidents underscores the potential for a dangerous escalation of the
war, reveal the extent to which US forces are directly exposed and help explain
increasingly urgent entreaties from Washington for Israel to scale down the war
in Gaza.
Future
incidents in which US soldiers are killed or naval assets are seriously damaged
would leave Washington little choice but to get sucked deeper back into the
Middle East after the last three presidents tried to disengage from the region.
Christopher
O’Leary, a former director of hostage recovery for the US government, said on
“CNN News Central” on Tuesday that while the regional situation had not
approached worst case scenarios so far, the potential for deterioration was
ever-present.
“The
Israel-Hamas war is part of the grander scheme from the axis of resistance, the
Iran-controlled strategy to get regional influence and power through groups,
surrogate groups like Hamas, like Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Kataib
Hezbollah, and the Houthis,” O’Leary said.
“So,
although there has been sustained attacks, they have been measured, to a point,
including the Houthi attacks in ships on the Red Sea. But these are warnings
what could possibly come. If Iran actually takes the gloves off and turns loose
the surrogate forces with all of their might, we have a real regional problem,
yes, against the US troops stationed in Iraq and Syria.”
The
situation for US troops in Iraq and Syria is especially dangerous as they are
within easy reach of militant groups that are loyal to Iran. Republicans have
long accused Biden of not taking sufficient action to deter such adversaries,
but the administration has taken pains to try to avoid escalating a fraught
moment into a bigger war. The line between proportional responses and effective
deterrence is getting increasingly thin. The attack on the airbase raises questions
about how the installation was so vulnerable to being penetrated by a drone.
And a deeper issue is now whether the latest US air strikes — which were
blasted by Iraq as a hostile act — have done anything to deter future attacks.
“I would
argue that we’re playing whack-a-mole here, that we’ve got to go after these
troop formations and the leadership,” Ret. US Army Maj. Mike Lyons told CNN on
Tuesday. “I don’t think our deterrence has been anything that’s allowed the
Iranians to recognize that we’re serious about this.”
A broadened conflict could have painful economic consequences given the Red Sea’s critical importance to global supply chain routes for energy and goods.
The waterway is bordered on its eastern flanks by Yemen and Saudi Arabia and to the west by Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt.
It feeds into the Suez Canal at the Sinai Peninsula, which belongs to Egypt and borders Israel.
The potential for disruption in the canal, which offers the shortest sea route between Europe and Asia, was laid bare when a ship got stuck across its breadth in 2021, causing global reverberations.
Given the threat to their vessels and crews from drones and missiles, several shipping firms have ordered their captains to take the more expensive and time-consuming route around Africa.
The potential economic disruption has prompted the United States to frame an international coalition to protect merchant ships from Houthi attacks.
The United States said before
Christmas that nations including the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France,
Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and the Seychelles had signed up.
Houthis
have launched at least 100 attacks against 12 different commercial and merchant
vessels in the Red Sea over the last month, in a “very significant breadth of
attacks” not seen in at least “two generations,” a senior US military official
said last week.
The
possibility of military action in the Middle East is the last thing that Biden
— who is already deeply invested in trying to save Ukraine from a Russian
onslaught — would have hoped to be dealing with as 2024 begins. Any impression
that the president is struggling to exert authority on a world that sometimes
seems to be spinning out of control could be politically detrimental at a time
when Biden is plagued by approval ratings of less than 40% — perilous territory
for a commander-in-chief seeking reelection. Perceptions that Biden is failing
to respond robustly to challenges from US adversaries meanwhile could play into
public concerns that at 81, he’s not up to the demands of a second term — a
narrative that Republicans are seeking to reinforce in the minds of voters.
Ex-President
Donald Trump, who presided over a period of chaos and division at home and
abroad in his first term and alienated the US from its allies, is nevertheless
trying to create a picture of global disarray and disrespect for the United
States as the 77-year-old markets his vision of strongman leadership. So Biden
has little room for political maneuver against the GOP front-runner if the
situation suddenly takes a turn for the worse.
This tenuous political reality was the backdrop to fresh consultations between the Israeli government and the Biden administration on Tuesday.
This came after intense fighting erupted in Gaza between Israeli troops and Hamas forces following days of US calls for a less intense phase in the conflict.
Ron Dermer, one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s top confidants, met with officials in the White House and State Department.
Netanyahu had earlier
visited troops in Gaza and declared a “long fight” lay ahead. Israel’s Defense
Minister Yoav Gallant meanwhile declared that his country was in a “multi-arena
war, we are being attacked from seven different sectors,” he said, referring to
Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.
That is a
scenario that the United States, and Biden especially, cannot allow to become a
long-term reality.
CNN
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