US Military Bases and Facilities in the Middle East
April 20, 2024. Posted by Periscope - Hellas
Washington.
The U.S. military's success helping Israel stop a massive wave of Iranian missiles and drones last weekend might suggest Washington is well prepared militarily for whatever comes next as Iran and Israel move from shadow warfare to direct confrontation.
But current and former U.S. officials say U.S. forces are not positioned
for a major, sustained Middle East conflict and the Pentagon may have to
revisit assumptions about military needs in the region if the crisis deepens.
"I don't think we have all the forces that we would want to support
Israel if there was a direct war between them and Iran," said Michael
Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East
under the Trump administration.
Though Tehran has indicated it had no plans to retaliate for an apparent
Israeli strike on Friday, the tit-for-tat attacks have raised fears of an
unpredictable regional war that the United States has sought to prevent.
In the months since an attack by Hamas militants on Israel triggered a war
in Gaza that has ignited unrest throughout the Middle East, the United States
has rushed thousands of U.S. service members to a region that had seen a
steadily declining U.S. presence over years.
But many of those new U.S. troops are on warships and aircraft that move in
and out of the region, and are only temporarily deployed. That U.S. strategy to
rely on surge forces could be tested now Iran and Israel have broken the taboo
of open military strikes against each other.
"What it means for the U.S. military is that I think we have to
revisit this idea of what are the necessary, sustainable (military)
capabilities that we have to maintain in the region," said Joseph Votel, a
retired four star Army general who led U.S. troops in the Middle East.
Votel and other former officials said the U.S. military's success in
downing Iran's drones and missiles last Saturday was presumably aided by
detailed U.S. intelligence that allowed the Pentagon to anticipate the timing
and targets of Iran's attack.
"I think the bigger concern is our ability to be responsive over a
sustained period of time," Votel said.
U.S. officials say Iran does not appear to want an all-out war with Israel,
and Tehran has played down Friday's strike. Still, experts warn the situation
is unpredictable, particularly as long as the Israel-Hamas conflict rages.
Kurilla had requested
more troops
U.S. Army General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, the current head
of Central Command, told lawmakers last month that he had requested more troops
than the Pentagon had sent to his region, which President Joe Biden's
administration has said is a lower priority than the challenge from China, for
example.
In written testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, Kurilla said a
dangerous shortfall in U.S. intelligence assets, targeting expertise and
linguists "contributes to gaps and seams in our ability to detect and
disrupt plots, increasing freedom of movement" for violent extremist
organizations.
Although Kurilla's comments appeared more focused on Afghanistan, some
intelligence shortfalls have already affected U.S. strategy since the start of
the war in Gaza.
For example, a lack of detail about Houthi weapons stockpiles before the
Iran-backed group started attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea has made
it hard to determine the effect of months of strikes on the group's arsenal of
missiles and drones, said officials.
Still, sending more U.S. troops to the Middle East and bolstering
intelligence assets longer-term could prove difficult, officials say.
"Troops are spread around Europe (and) those that aren't are going
through overdue maintenance cycles," one U.S. official said, speaking on
condition of anonymity.
"And Asia is
supposed to be the focus."
Another official said it was still unclear whether the U.S. military was
prepared to pull forces from Asia or Europe, despite the increase in tensions.
Prior to October, the last time the United States surged thousands of
troops into the Middle East was under former President Donald Trump, during a
series of escalatory actions that culminated in the U.S. killing of Iran's top
general and a retaliatory missile attack by Tehran on a U.S. base in Iraq.
The first U.S. official noted that the surge of troops in 2019 and 2020 was
possible because, unlike today, Washington did not have to dedicate so many
personnel and resources to Europe -- a new reality following Russia's 2022
invasion of Ukraine.
Mulroy said the United States should strengthen its position in the Middle
East without abandoning its China-first focus.
"We need to deploy forces based on the current threat environment. And
the current trend ... is obviously a potential for a broader nation-on-nation
conflict in the Middle East," Mulroy said.
Reuters