Sept 19, 2023. Posted by Balkan Periscope - Hellas
Farming is a key sector of the Ukrainian economy, accounting for more than
eight per cent of GDP in 2022. Its neighbours, fearing a ‘surge’ of cheap
grain, are unmoved.
Crossing Bulgaria’s border with Romania can be a trying experience at the best of times. The existence of a hard border between the two countries (a consequence of their continued exclusion from the EU’s border-free Schengen zone) necessitates passport and customs checks which can cause long delays—not least for the thousands of good vehicles which need to cross the border each day.
At the busiest crossing point between the two countries, at Ruse on the
Danube, queues were longer than ever on September 18 owing to a protest by
Bulgarian farmers, angry that the government in Sofia had lifted a ban on food
products from Ukraine, and concerned that the move will cause an influx that
drives down prices for local growers.
Hundreds of farmers blockaded access roads leading to the border with
tractors, as well as other key highways across the country.
In a statement, Bulgaria’s National Association of Grain Producers said
that farmers are facing “unprecedented difficulties” and called for a ban key
food products from Ukraine. These include sunflower, wheat, corn and rapeseed,
as well as crude oil, meat, fruits and vegetables, milk, honey and dairy
products.
In May, acting on the concerns of Ukraine’s neighbours, the EU restricted
grain imports from the embattled country to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania
and Slovakia in a move designed to discourage and prevent the five countries
from acting unilaterally. As part of the EU restrictions, Ukraine was allowed
to export through those countries on condition the produce was sold elsewhere.
The restrictions, however, were lifted on September 15 after Ukraine
pledged to take measures to tighten control of exports to neighbouring
countries. Its neighbours are unconvinced. Poland, Slovakia and Hungary have
already put in place their own restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports.
The issue is highly politicised in both Poland, where the ruling Law and
Justice party (PiS), which relies on support in rural areas, faces a
parliamentary election on October 15. “We are extending the ban because it is
in the interest of the Polish farmer,” said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki
on September 15.
Slovakia goes to the polls even sooner, on September 30. There, the
populist Smer party of a former prime minister, Robert Fico, who wants to end
all support for Ukraine, leads in opinion polls.
Romania—where farmers’ associations have requested the government implement
a ban—is expected to follow in the coming days, although the country’s prime
minister, Marcel Ciolacu, said on September 18 that he wanted to find a
solution that worked for both Romania and Ukraine. He added, however, that he
would ensure there was no “surge” in Ukrainian agricultural imports.
Only Bulgaria looks set to allow the import of Ukrainian produce, with its
prime minister, Nikolay Denkov, unmoved by the protests, which are likely to
continue.
“Farmers cannot treat European requirements with disdain, given that the
tractors with which they want to block the entire country were bought with
European funds,” he said.
A new deal is needed
For Ukraine, farming is a key sector of the economy, accounting for more
than eight per cent of GDP in 2022. Despite Russia’s initial blockade of its
Black Sea ports following its invasion of the country in February 2022, it had
been able to safely export its grain under a deal brokered by the United
Nations and Turkey to ensure safe shipments.
However, Russia withdrew from the deal in July, forcing Kyiv to reroute
transport through the Danube River, and road and rail links into Europe.
According to Ukrainian port authorities, two cargo ships arrived at the
Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk on September 16 after travelling through the
Black Sea using a new route, and were due to load 20,000 tonnes of wheat bound
for world markets. It was the first time civilian ships had reached a Ukrainian
port since the collapse of the deal with Russia.
With Russian threatening to treat civilian vessels as potential military
targets however, the route is unlikely to be able to viable for the export of
the much larger quantities of grain Ukraine needs to export.
A new deal with Russia, which Turkey is hoping to broker at the UN General
Assembly in New York this week, or a new deal with the EU to bypass the
unilateral bans of Ukraine’s neighbours, will be needed.
The latter looks unlikely in the immediate future—at least until Slovakia
and Poland have held their parliamentary elections.
Emerging
Europe
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